Happy Easter! The market appears to have dodged a bullet with the recent regional bank crisis. And now recent inflation figures show a continued decline in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), declining to an annual rate of 5.0 percent from 5.7 percent in November. Overall, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maximum employment, i.e. low unemployment, and stable prices, i.e. targeting 2 percent inflation. The focus will continue to be inflation while unemployment remains at 3.6 percent, although this may change as the banking crisis results in contracting credit conditions for consumers and businesses over the remainder of 2023. There remains much to be hopeful about, even if there remain economic surprises yet to surface in 2023.
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