Jon Gauthier

Happy December! Recent jobs numbers show unemployment holding steady at 4.2 percent in November while job creation rebounded to 227,000 new jobs from a revised 36,000 new jobs in October. With labor markets holding steady, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut another 25 basis points from the federal funds rate at its December meeting. […]

Happy November! After two hurricanes and a major strike, the jobs report for October showed a gain of only 12,000 jobs instead of an expected 100,000 gain. Overall, private sector jobs declined 28,000 and the total number of jobs created was the lowest since a negative number in December 2021. Unemployment stayed at 4.1 percent,

Happy October! Unemployment declined slightly to 4.1 percent in September from 4.2 percent in August. Meanwhile consumer sentiment continued to decline from 105.6 to 98.7 in the Conference Board’s survey. Such a divergence is inconsistent with an economic slowdown. Perhaps underlying the divergence of economic results and confidence are the facts that U.S. wealth increased

Happy September! Summer is finally giving way to autumn and we are about to see the Federal Reserve begin an expected string of rate cuts to the overnight federal funds rate which currently stands at 5.25 to 5.5 percent. The market has been anticipating this moment for some time, so we’ll soon find out if

Happy August! Although the Federal Reserve held interest rates at between 5.25 and 5.5 percent at its July meeting, the market is expecting a 0.25 percent rate cut at its upcoming September meeting, and possibly a 0.50 percent cut. This is partly because unemployment has spiked to 4.3 percent from a low of 3.5 percent

Happy July! The Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, came in at 2.7 percent for May. Meanwhile, consumer expectations for inflation over the next 12 months came in at 3.0 percent. While it appears inflation is behind us, the Federal Reserve fears inflation will resume a climb higher, so we

Happy June! Recent revisions to Q1 2024 GDP lowered growth from 1.6 percent to 1.3 percent. Meanwhile, recent predictions by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow® for Q2 2024 were lowered from 2.7 percent to 1.8 percent. No one has mentioned the recession word, but we are closer to one than many market participants

Happy May! Recent volatility in the markets might best be described by the Aesop Fable, “Be careful what you wish for, it might come true!”  As a slowing economy reduces the rate of inflation, the risk increases that we may tip into a recession. The jobs report for April shows new jobs at 175,000 versus

Happy Spring! The March jobs report showed the robust creation of 303,000 jobs while the unemployment rate declined slightly to 3.8 percent. The largest contributors to jobs were health care (72,000), government (71,000), and hospitality (49,000). Meanwhile, wages increased 0.3 percent, or 4.1 percent from a year ago. The household survey showed a mixed report