Happy February! As we enter mid-winter, the U.S. economy is showing resilience even as it slows its pace of growth. In 2021, the U.S. GDP grew at a rate of 5.7 percent; in 2022, at a rate of 1.0 percent; and in 2023, we expect 0.7 percent. Given the U.S. population grows at roughly 1 percent per year, this would be a contraction on a per capita basis. The Federal Reserve’s recent increase of 0.25 percent on the overnight federal funds rate to 4.5 percent will also increase pressure on households and companies to reduce spending and costs. The market is anticipating a “soft landing” for the economy in 2023, but it’s still possible this could evolve into a recession. We’ll know more soon, but until then, stay safe, and enjoy the brisk days of winter!
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