Happy June! The markets are breathing a sigh of relief with the passage of the federal debt ceiling legislation waiving the debt ceiling until January 2025. In some ways, this is a major accomplishment, but in another way, this just allows us to focus on underlying economic growth and corporate earnings. Corporate earnings have declined for two quarters in a row (-2.0 in Q4 2022 and -5.1 in Q1 2023) and real gross domestic income is expected to decline for two quarters in a row as well. No one has declared a recession, but a slowdown has begun. And a slowdown can occur without a recession. But as consumers draw down savings and corporations stretch to become more lean, the risk of a recession grows. Until then, enjoy the start of summer with loved ones and friends!
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